Tuesday, 13 January 2009

Latin America and Global Economic and Finance Agenda (Update)

Wedn., Jan. 14:

U.S. -- December Retail Sales (8 a.m. NYT): It may take an awful number to spark another round of market declines.

U.S. -- EIA Oil Inventories Estimate (10:30 a.m. NYT): This may hep determine the short-term trend for oil prices in global markets.

U.S. -- Beige Book (2 p.m. NYT): Anecdotal evidence gathered by the different Federal Reserve branches will show a marked deterioration of business confidence, job declines and, perhaps, deflation signs. Worth following it closely.

CHILE -- Monetary Policy Report (7 a.m. NYT): Most analysts expect the Chilean Central Bank to unveil a new stance on growth and inflation scenarios. The bank trimmed its target interest rate by 1 percentage point to 7.25 percent at its first meeting of this year.

MEXICO -- October Global Economic Indicator (3 p.m. NYT): Most numbers showed a decline in economic activity during October. The central bank, which acknowledged an economic contraction in the last quarter of 2009, is poised to cut interest rates agressively, according to banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

PANAMA -- December Inflation Rate (N.A)

Thu., Jan. 15:

PERU -- November Growth Figures, Unemployment Data (6:30 a.m. NYT): The Peruvian economy, the fastest growing in South America, probably underwent a deceleration of activity not as dramatic as Brazil's or Colombia's. Investors should look closely at data picturing the activity in construction (labour-intensive sector) and mining (the main source of export revenue and a driver for investment.)

Fri., Jan. 16:

BRAZIL -- November Retail Sales (6 a.m. NYT): Don't forget that most business and consumer confidence surveys took a plunge in November, so the situation for retailers is about to go awry. There is full consensus that retailing reverted course in the fourth quarter. The monthly reading should show some increase in sales of basic items such as foodstuffs (as inflation of those goods is starting to slow) and point to a drop in sales of credit-financed items such as appliances and cars.

MEXICO -- November Industrial Output (3 p.m. NYT): Industrial output probably recorded its seventh straight monthly drop.

MEXICO -- Monetary Policy Meeting (10 a.m. NYT): Banco de Mexico will cut interest rates and signal a downward trend on borrowing costs because the economy is faltering and the government will freeze fuel prices. Full stop.

Wedn. Jan. 20

COLOMBIA -- Comcel Holds Bondholder Meeting to Cancel Bond Registration (3:30 p.m. NYT): Comcel, the Colombian wireless operator, seeks apporval from bondholders to delist five series of bonds worth 750 billion pesos.

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