Tuesday, 13 January 2009

Latin America Economic and Financial Agenda -- Week of Jan. 12 (Update)

Tue., Jan. 13:
ARGENTINA -- December Inflation Rate (1 p.m. NYT): The inflation rate (remember that in Argentina data has been openly adulterated) will decline, analysts at IDEAGlobal, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup predicted. The economy is heading for recession.
MEXICO -- Contractual Wages Report (3 p.m. NYT)
COLOMBIA -- Uribe to be Condecorated by U.S. President Bush, Announcements on Trade Deal May Come (1 p.m. NYT): Well, that BS medal isn't important. But Bush or Uribe may try to revive interest on the passage of the free trade agreement.


Wedn., Jan. 14:
CHILE -- Monetary Policy Report (7 a.m. NYT): Most analysts expect the Chilean Central Bank to unveil a new stance on growth and inflation scenarios. The bank trimmed its target interest rate by 1 percentage point to 7.25 percent at its first meeting of this year.
MEXICO -- October Global Economic Indicator (3 p.m. NYT): Most numbers showed a decline in economic activity during October. The central bank, which acknowledged an economic contraction in the last quarter of 2009, is poised to cut interest rates agressively, according to banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
PANAMA -- December Inflation Rate (N.A)

ECUADOR -- Finance Minister Viteri May Announce Draft Renegotiation Proposal on Defaulted Debt (N.A.): Rumours has it that the government may propose buying back debt at low prices and urge a change in covenants and contractual terms. Viteri will also say somethign regarding the coupon payment of the 2015 bonds.

Thu., Jan. 15:
PERU -- November Growth Figures, Unemployment Data (6:30 a.m. NYT): The Peruvian economy, the fastest growing in South America, probably underwent a deceleration of activity not as dramatic as Brazil's or Colombia's. Investors should look closely at data picturing the activity in construction (labour-intensive sector) and mining (the main source of export revenue and a driver for investment.)


Fri., Jan. 16:
BRAZIL -- November Retail Sales (6 a.m. NYT): Don't forget that most business and consumer confidence surveys took a plunge in November, so the situation for retailers is about to go awry. There is full consensus that retailing reverted course in the fourth quarter. The monthly reading should show some increase in sales of basic items such as foodstuffs (as inflation of those goods is starting to slow) and point to a drop in sales of credit-financed items such as appliances and cars.
MEXICO -- November Industrial Output (3 p.m. NYT): Industrial output probably recorded its seventh straight monthly drop.
MEXICO -- Monetary Policy Meeting (10 a.m. NYT): Banco de Mexico will cut interest rates and signal a downward trend on borrowing costs because the economy is faltering and the government will freeze fuel prices. Full stop.

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