Monday, 19 January 2009

Peru, the Fastest Growing Latin Economy, Braces for Tougher Times, Bulltick Says

Bulltick LLC said in a report Friday that fourth quarter economic growth in Peru would slow to 5.9 percent on a year-on-year basis from 9.4 percent in the third quarter. Bulltick now estimates 2008 real GDP growth of 8.96 percent, the highest in Latin America. Their estimate for 2009 growth is 5.6 percent, also the highest in Latin America. The slowdown will come ''as the slumping global economy curbs demand for Peruvian exports and as domestic demand eventually slows´´ by half to about 6 percent growth this year, down from 12 percent last year.

Bulltick insists that Peru is well positioned to deal with the global recession because of structural reforms it undertook earlier in the decade and growing fiscal savings. ''However, Peru is not immune to the strong global headwinds, and as we have been contending, this country will also experience lower economic growth, less favorable terms-of-trade, as well as deteriorating current and fiscal accounts over 2009. This expected trend has begun, yet it will be a soft landing,´´ the shop said.

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